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2006 RMA Preliminary Seasonal Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook — April 13, 2006

Rocky Mountain Area Predictive Services

2006 Preliminary Seasonal Fire Weather / Fire Danger Outlook
April 13, 2006

E. Resource Considerations:

In 2004, less than a quarter of a million acres burned. The numbers of fires in 2004 was about 70% of the 10 year average (1994-2003) and the number of acres burned in the RMA during the 2004 fire season was about 25% of the 10 year average. Compared to 2004, the 2005 RMA fire season was average to well below average based on fire totals, although the potential for lightning ignition was evident in June and especially July. In 2005, the RMA had 3,194 fires that burned 84, 649 acres.

During the 2004 fire season, the RMA had less than average resource demands, which includes an extended season due to hurricane relief efforts. The Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center (RMACC), including overhead, equipment, crews and aircraft, filled just over 2,000 resource orders. 3 Type 2 Incident Management Teams (IMT’s) and 2 Fire Use Management Teams (FUMT) were assigned to 5 large fires or incidents in the RMA. No type 1 IMT’s were assigned in the RMA during 2004. In 2005, the resource demand in the RMA was about equal to that of 2004. Only 2,017 resource orders were filled by RMACC. Fifty-six large fires were reported in the RMA that burned over 72,000 acres. 4 type 2 IMT’s and 3 FUMT’s were assigned to incidents in the RMA in 2005. The RMA never reached preparedness level (PL) 4 or 5 in 2005.

Based on the past weather trends and climate outlooks for the remainder of spring, it is anticipated that portions of the RMA will have an earlier than normal onset of full fire season. However, expected weather trends for the summer, in combination with ERC and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture projections within certain PSA’s, it is anticipated that more resources will be needed in the RMA in 2006 than the previous two years.


The following individuals contributed to the national climate consensus forecast referred to in this outlook: .

Tim Brown, Desert Research Institute
Klaus Wolter, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostic Center
NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Web Sites for Graphics in this Document

US Drought Monitor

Mountain NRCS Snotel Basin Average Snow Water Content

Colorado Statewide Snowpack

Colorado Snow Water Equivalent by Basin

Wyoming Snow Water Equivalent (Map)

Wyoming Snow Water Equivalent by Basin

Black Hills Snotel Sites

Percent of Normal Precipitation

NDVI Departure from Average Greenness


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