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2006 RMA Preliminary Seasonal Fire Weather/Fire Danger Outlook — April 13, 2006

Rocky Mountain Area Predictive Services

2006 Preliminary Seasonal Fire Weather / Fire Danger Outlook
April 13, 2006


C. 2006 Weather Outlooks For Spring and Summer

The precipitation and temperature outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center for Spring 2006 (Figures 18 and 19) show a tilt towards drier than average conditions April, May, June across Kansas, southern Nebraska and the eastern two-thirds of Colorado. Warmer than average conditions are forecast across southern sections of the RMA this Spring. For June, July and August 2006, below average precipitation is forecast for portions of eastern Colorado and western Kansas, with warmer than average temperatures forecast for much of the RMA (Figure 20 and 21).


Figure 18. CPC 2006 Spring (April, May, June) Precipitation Outlook.

 


Figure 19. CPC 2006 Spring (April, May, June) Temperature Outlook.

 


Figure 20. CPC 2006 Summer (June, July, August) Precipitation Outlook.

 


Figure 21. CPC 2006 Summer (June, July, August) Temperature Outlook.

Persistent weak La Nina conditions and its impact on the 2006 RMA spring and summer temperature and precipitation patterns is unknown. ENSO outlooks suggest weakening of La Nina conditions through the end of 2006. Historical impacts on spring and summer temperature and precipitation in the RMA during past La Nina episodes do raise some concerns on possible dry and hot scenarios for portions of the RMA for the upcoming fire season. Figure 22 shows temperature (on the [top]) and precipitation (on the [bottom]) anomalies using 11 La Nina cases during the spring months of April, May, June. Above average temperature anomalies (positive) are noted over portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado, otherwise average to below average temperature anomalies have occurred across the remainder of the RMA. Below average (negative) precipitation anomalies show dryness over much of the RMA.



Figure 22. Spring (April, May, June) temperature (on the [top]) and precipitation (on the [bottom]) anomalies using 11 La Nina cases. For temperature on the [top], blue colors indicated below average temperature and red colors indicate above average temperatures. For precipitation on the [bottom], brown colors indicate below average precipitation, and green indicates above average precipitation.

Figure 23 shows summer temperature (on the [top]) and precipitation (on the [bottom]) anomalies during 12 La Nina cases. Average to above average temperatures often occur across the RMA when La Nina conditions persist in the summer months. Also, below average precipitation often occurs across much of the RMA.



Figure 23. Summer (June, July, August) temperature (on the [top]) and precipitation (on the [bottom]) anomalies using 12 La Nina cases. For temperature on the [top], blue colors indicated below average temperature and red colors indicate above average temperatures. For precipitation on the [bottom], brown colors indicate below average precipitation, and green indicates above average precipitation.

Another climate predictor that may have impacts on spring and summer temperature and precipitation patterns in the RMA in 2006 includes the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is defined by the difference between high pressure from the eastern sea board into south-central Europe versus low pressure over Iceland. NAO has been mostly negative over the winter. A negative NAO could also impact North American climate this spring and summer. Past negative NAO episodes have resulted in warmer than average temperatures, below average precipitation, and drier than average relative humidity during the spring and summer months across much of the Rockies (Refer to spring and summer precipitation and relative humidity anomalies figures 24-27).


Figure 24 Surface precipitation rate composite anomaly during negative NAO for April thru June.


Figure 25 Surface relative humidity composite anomaly during negative NAO for April thru June.


Figure 26 Surface precipitation rate composite anomaly during negative NAO for June through August.


Figure 27 Surface relative humidity composite anomaly during negative NAO for June thru August.


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